PERTH: Just days after taking office, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba already appears to be on the defensive.
In his first policy speech to parliament on Oct 4, and certainly with an eye on the snap election on Oct 27, there was no explicit mention of the "Asian version of NATO" he had advocated nor some of the more divisive proposals he made in the lead-up to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s presidential election.
Besides the idea of a collective defence system, his ideas to “ensure deterrence against the nuclear alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea” included considering nuclear sharing with the United States. making the US-Japan alliance more equal, and even deploying the Japan military to US territory Guam.
Call it showing restraint in pushing his personal agenda or backpedalling in the face of scepticism, the new prime minister has good reason to take a cautious approach to national security issues.
Given his weak support within the party, he is likely to avoid stirring further internal division and focus on strengthening his mandate in the general election.
UNREALISTIC VIEW OF “ASIAN NATO”The creation of an Asian NATO has long been one of Mr Ishiba’s key arguments in the field of national security, a topic in which he excels. But bringing it to fruition will require party support and significant political capital to negotiate with reluctant countries - both of which he does not have.
Already, some LDP senior members have expressed their opposition to the idea. The LDP has also approved its campaign platform for the upcoming election, which omits mention of the creation of an Asian NATO.
Given the completely different geographic and historical contexts of Asia, the United States have established a “hub-and-spokes” alliance system or a series of bilateral security alliances in Asia. It is hard to imagine a framework, similar to the NATO collective defence system, being formed here in the diverse region.
It is unrealistic to expect Asian countries to explicitly choose sides against China as a “common threat,” especially considering many have close economic ties with it.
Related:Commentary: No one wants an Asian NATO, except Japan’s new PM Ishiba Commentary: Japan’s new prime minister has barely the concept of a plan NO INTEREST IN REVISING US-JAPAN “ASYMMETRY”Mr Ishiba will also face opposition from the US on other fronts from the get-go, if he takes his predecessor Fumio Kishida’s work in beefing up the US-Japan alliance one step further. It might be one step too far for Washington’s liking.
He advocates for revising the “asymmetry” in the US-Japan Security Treaty to make the alliance more balanced and for Japan to participate in the decision-making process regarding the use of US nuclear weapons through “nuclear sharing”.
He also proposes revising the Status of Forces Agreement, which grants privileged status to US forces stationed in Japan, but Washington has consistently opposed such revisions. The most controversial special status is exemption from Japanese laws.
It remains unclear what specific changes Mr Ishiba aims to achieve.
Japan's legal framework restricts its role in collective self-defence1xbet, a crucial factor for joining any military alliance. In the past, even the partial approval of this sparked significant public debate, and the nation remains divided on expanding these powers.
FILE - Members of Atomic Bomb survivors groups gather, holding a banner calling for Japanese government to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, with the Atomic Bomb Dome in background, in Hiroshima, western Japan, on Oct. 25, 2020. (Kyodo News via AP, File)